Results 1 to 9 of 9
  1. #1
    Wannabe Pilot southern_flyer's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2018
    Posts
    16
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 1 Time in 1 Post

    Best mid-range forecast?

    Would anyone be able to recommend - or share their own practice - solutions for mid-term weather and forecasting?

    TAFs are obviously ultra-short-term, but I find the Met Office/BBC just isnít useful beyond 24 hours.

    I sometimes look at Windfinder, but I find this tends to over-estimate wind speed considerably.

    It would be great to know if there are any providers or sources that can help, looking 24hrs > 5 days ahead. I ask only because I have to book time off work for lessons, but if the weather is iffy Iíve wasted annual leave if I donít fly - and I need to give the club more than 24 hours notice if I change dates/times.

    Being able to look more than 24 hours ahead would be really useful but I canít find anything even half reliable (knowing that weather is an inexact science); yesterday BBC was saying tomorrow is dry and sunny, this morning itís saying wet and cloudy!

    Or - is the answer: donít try thinking about weather more than 24 hours in advance?


  2. #2
    Captain MadamBreakneck's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Essex UK
    Posts
    1,772
    Thanks
    103
    Thanked 202 Times in 159 Posts
    I use this to guide how much the others can be trusted: http://www.weathercast.co.uk/service...-forecast.html



    Back to just bimbling in the TST.

    No longer instructing - just pontificating.


  3. #3
    Co-Pilot Martin Watson's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2012
    Posts
    443
    Thanks
    24
    Thanked 52 Times in 47 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by southern_flyer View Post
    Would anyone be able to recommend - or share their own practice - solutions for mid-term weather and forecasting?

    TAFs are obviously ultra-short-term, but I find the Met Office/BBC just isn’t useful beyond 24 hours....

    Or - is the answer: don’t try thinking about weather more than 24 hours in advance?
    24 hour to 5 days out is the most difficult for any forecasting model, at least to the level of detail that we need. So yes, accept that 24 hours is about all that's possible with the precision and reliability needed to know whether to go to the airfield or not. Longer than 5 days can be quite accurate at least in terms of overall trends.

    Lots of research money being spent at the moment on improving medium term forecast models (not that that helps us just now!).

    Simon Keeling's twice weekly videos are pretty good, and he will sometimes comment on the confidence level, which is helpful (different weather patterns have different levels of predictabiliy).
    https://www.flyer.co.uk/weather/

    Incidentally in my recent experience the BBC is rubbish. The Met Office is much better for the short and medium term. The BBC get their forecasts from a different source these days, having ditched the met office because they were too expensive.

    You need also to be getting familiar with the aviation forecasts that the Met Office produce. Search their site for it - you need to register, but it's free.

    It's worth perseverance to learn about the weather - you will get the feel for it in time. And it's easier in the summer generally.
    Martin
    BMAA 5370
    Fixed wing instruction, examinations and revalidations in Norfolk.


  4. #4
    Co-Pilot Keveng's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Posts
    309
    Thanks
    42
    Thanked 32 Times in 25 Posts
    try this https://www.windy.com/?51.817,-0.357,5 give various models and forecasts also winds at altitude
    Quantum 15 , 582
    G- MYTI


  5. #5
    Co-Pilot Aerial's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Posts
    383
    Thanks
    91
    Thanked 31 Times in 30 Posts
    I'll second Windy and especially Simon Keeling's forecasts. Both are good for the time period you are interested in. I'd also recommend a good look round Simon's website: https://weatherschool.co.uk/

    Edit: Simon's forecasts are on Thurdsays around about noon and Tuesdays (I think).
    Last edited by Aerial; 07-03-19 at 23:19 PM. Reason: To include a bit more about Flyer forecasts.


  6. #6
    Captain kawasakiinit's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2014
    Location
    uk
    Posts
    1,387
    Thanks
    84
    Thanked 60 Times in 59 Posts
    i use xc weather ,pardon the pun but it can blow hot and cold at times but they all do imo
    The more people I meet the more I love my cat..


  7. #7
    Wannabe Pilot zombeh's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2017
    Posts
    23
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts
    I find Windy very useful for 48 hours or so, the met office very good for tomorrow and a mixture of looking out the window, TAFs, METARs (windy is quite good for looking at lots of those at once and it translates them) and meteoradar for right now/the next few hours.

    A very useful thing about Windy is that it tells you how old the forecast you're looking at is, typically it updates at 9am and 9pm. If the weather is changing quickly it can be very inaccurate by mid afternoon.


  8. #8
    Co-Pilot Randombloke's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Posts
    981
    Thanks
    324
    Thanked 142 Times in 114 Posts
    This one:

    http://www.westwind.ch/?link=ukmb,ht...,brack3,brack4

    tells you everything you need to know for the big picture, airmasses, wind speeds, front and pressures.
    Steve U.
    PG, HG & microlights
    "Weekend bimbler, day to day car driver & genuinely undeserving Southern oik who has never done anything of any worth"


  9. #9
    Co-Pilot Wexfordair's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Posts
    298
    Thanks
    6
    Thanked 20 Times in 19 Posts
    Apart from thermal winds in the summer time, I find this the best way to get a general feel for the trend over the next few days. After using it a few times you get an idea what to expect.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/mobile/surface-pressure


Similar Threads

  1. Rotax 503 DCDI poor throttle response mid range.
    By bom in forum Microlight Technical
    Replies: 10
    Last Post: 25-06-14, 20:13 PM
  2. Long Range Forecasts
    By VinceG in forum Off Topic Discussion
    Replies: 4
    Last Post: 23-06-14, 18:37 PM
  3. Belite range sounds interesting
    By Ginge in forum SSDR & Foot Launched
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 12-03-10, 13:02 PM
  4. Pegasus Q range
    By southcoastflyer in forum Microlight Discussion
    Replies: 10
    Last Post: 06-03-10, 13:39 PM
  5. Weekend Weather Forecast
    By VinceG in forum Microlight Discussion
    Replies: 4
    Last Post: 12-12-09, 02:55 AM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •